Silver (MCX)
Silver Price Could Reach ₹3.25 Lakh/Kg if Inflation Eases and Dollar Weakens, Say Experts
Silver prices are currently trading in the mid-$60s per ounce, equivalent to around ₹2.40 lakh per kg on the MCX, with experts watching for triggers that could push the metal toward higher levels. According to N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity CRM at Ventura, a combination of softer inflation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker US dollar, and stabilising industrial demand from sectors like solar, electric vehicles, and data centres could drive silver toward ₹3.25 lakh per kg in the medium term.
Ramaswamy expects near-term volatility, with silver likely to fluctuate within a broad range of $63 to $75 per ounce (₹2.25 lakh to ₹2.89 lakh per kg) due to ongoing sensitivity to interest rate expectations and dollar movements. He noted that downside support could hold near $64.50 per ounce (₹2.35 lakh per kg) if macroeconomic conditions ease, while persistent high interest rates might confine prices to a $60–$63 per ounce band (₹2.25 lakh per kg).
Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, observed that silver is trading in a $62.50–$67.50 per ounce range (₹2.30 lakh–₹2.42 lakh per kg) with a bullish bias, advising investors to buy dips and sell into rallies. She added that a break above resistance could lift prices toward $70–$71 per ounce (approximately ₹2.50 lakh per kg).
On the day of reporting, MCX silver rose 0.6% to ₹2,41,377 per kg, while international spot silver declined 0.6% to $66.70 per ounce (₹2.39 lakh per kg), as the US dollar steadied near its two-month high. The metal’s movement was muted amid expectations that major central banks, including the Fed, Bank of Japan, and ECB, may keep rates elevated longer to combat inflation.
Experts highlighted silver’s dual role as both a monetary hedge and an industrial commodity, making it sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic policy and physical supply dynamics. While strong industrial demand and tight mine supply provide long-term support — especially from growth in AI, electrification, and renewable energy — around 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, zinc, lead, and gold mining, limiting independent supply expansion.
Additionally, sustained high prices have led some solar panel manufacturers to reduce silver usage per unit through ‘thrifting’, which could temper excessive price rallies. Ramaswamy warned that silver’s lower liquidity compared to gold can amplify speculative swings, with sudden institutional or retail ETF flows potentially increasing volatility.
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