Nifty 50
Nifty 50 at Risk of Breaking Below 22,000 as Experts Cite RBI Rate Hike Fears
The Nifty 50 index slipped from 23,140 to 22,421 over four consecutive sessions last week, marking a weekly loss of 719 points or 3.10%. This decline has raised concerns among market experts about a potential break below the 22,000 level. Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities noted that the index formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts and showed lower highs and lower lows intraday, indicating a weak short-term trend, though he acknowledged the possibility of a pullback rally toward 22,500.
Avinash Gorakshkar of Avinash Mentor Research highlighted that markets are pricing in at least a 25 basis points rate hike by the RBI in its upcoming MPC meeting. However, he warned that the absence of any Government of India commentary despite successive market declines could prompt the RBI to deliver a larger-than-expected hike, which might push the Nifty 50 below 22,000 on a closing basis.
Mahesh M Ojha of KC Securities added that the recent sell-off reflects anticipation of a 25 BPS RBI rate increase, but the market is also watching the US Federal Reserve meeting slated for end-October 2026, where another 25 BPS hike is expected. Such a move could strengthen the US dollar and raise global bond yields, adding pressure on Indian equities.
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered expert, said the Nifty 50’s weekly close will be pivotal: a finish above 22,000 could keep hopes of a trend reversal alive, while a close below that level would likely be welcomed by bears. He also stressed that upcoming US inflation and non-farm payroll data will be critical ahead of the Fed meeting, as weaker-than-expected figures could fuel expectations of a US rate cut, which would negatively impact global equities.
Gorakshkar further pointed to China’s decision to suspend oil product exports for October as a negative factor, noting that reduced fuel exports from the world’s top crude importer could support already elevated oil prices, thereby weighing on global markets.
From a technical perspective, Ojha observed that the Nifty 50 has historically traded in ranges, currently between 22,000 and 26,000, with key support at 21,700. A decisive break below that level could increase the likelihood of the index testing 20,000, with subsequent support zones shifting to 19,800–19,700.
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