Indian markets poised to open lower on 7 Oct as GIFT Nifty signals caution

This follows a strong rally in benchmark indices on Tuesday, 6 October, when the BSE Sensex gained 685.34 points, or 0.95%, to close at 73,067.81, and the NSE Nifty advanced 220.35 points, or 0.98%, to settle at 22,776.10.

The gains were driven by falling crude oil prices below USD 100 per barrel, strong buying in banking stocks and Reliance Industries, and a sharp 7.9% decline in the India VIX.

Despite the positive domestic performance, global cues were mixed: US stock futures posted record highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record for the first time since August, the Nasdaq extending its winning streak, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.49% to 51,521.04.

In Asia, markets opened lower on Wednesday, breaking a gaining streak, with South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.11% to 6,864.25 at the open, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened largely unchanged and Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 0.23% in early trade.

Analysts noted that while Wall Street’s record highs offer a supportive global backdrop, persistently elevated U.S. Treasury yields and caution ahead of the RBI policy decision scheduled for 8 October are likely to keep risk appetite in check.

Technical outlook for the Sensex suggests a potential move toward 73,400–73,500 if it sustains above 73,000, while a failure to hold 72,500 could trigger consolidation. For the Nifty, analysts view 22,600 as a key support level, with resistance at 22,850 determining near-term direction.

The RBI policy outcome on 8 October remains a key focus for investors, with continued rupee weakness — the currency fell 27 paise to 96.56 per dollar on Tuesday — seen as an overhang on market sentiment.