Bernstein India Model Portfolio
Bernstein updates India model portfolio, adds Adani Ports, Eternal, Paytm; removes DMart
Bernstein has reshuffled its India model portfolio, adding Adani Ports, Eternal and Paytm while removing Avenue Supermarts, or DMart. The brokerage has retained its Nifty 50 target of 26,000 and maintains a modest view on broader market returns. The changes come as Bernstein highlights India's "distortion economy", where policy interventions, government transfers, subsidies and liquidity are increasingly shaping economic growth and corporate performance.
Adani Ports has been added with a target price of ₹1,973, based on its strong balance sheet, pricing power and potential upside from international operations. Eternal enters the portfolio with a target price of ₹350, supported by expectations of easing competitive pressure in quick commerce and improving EBITDA and order value trends. Bernstein sees Paytm as having the highest upside among the three additions, assigning a target price of ₹2,200, citing a potential rollout of UPI merchant discount rate as a margin catalyst and the resilience of its core payments business.
The removal of DMart follows the stock's recent outperformance and growing concerns about intensifying competition from quick-commerce platforms affecting its urban consumption base. The model portfolio now consists of 13 stocks, retaining exposure to Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Titan, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank.
Bernstein continues to identify beneficiaries across consumption, automobiles, financials, logistics, quick commerce and policy-supported industries. It highlights potential consumption boosts from government wage revisions, with passenger vehicles and Titan viewed as attractive plays on premium and discretionary spending. Mahindra & Mahindra is noted for its exposure to resilient rural demand, supported by government transfers and rural welfare measures.
In financials, Bernstein points to external borrowing and FCNR-driven liquidity as potential support for banking sector credit growth, even if margins remain under pressure. The brokerage also flags production-linked incentive beneficiaries in electronics manufacturing, aerospace and defence, and the electric vehicle ecosystem as areas to watch, while cautioning investors to distinguish between temporary policy support and sustainable long-term value creation.
Bernstein's note stresses that while distortions may not reflect permanent improvements in fundamentals, they can persist longer than expected and significantly influence earnings and stock performance. The brokerage advises investors to identify who benefits from these dynamics while they last, rather than fighting them. The reshuffled portfolio reflects where Bernstein believes such benefits are most likely to emerge—from infrastructure and banking to premium consumption, automobiles, ports, digital payments and the expanding quick-commerce ecosystem.
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