IdeaForge Technology
Ashika Research Initiates Coverage on IdeaForge with Buy Rating and ₹942 Target Price
Ashika Institutional Research has initiated coverage on ideaForge Technology with a BUY rating and a target price of ₹942, implying 27% upside from the then current market price of ₹741. The brokerage cited the company's potential to benefit from India's ₹200 billion Fast Track Procurement pipeline for drones as a key catalyst. This pipeline includes armed UAVs, loitering munitions, ISR platforms, counter-drone systems and MALE systems, and is legally accessible only to domestic manufacturers under Defence Procurement Manual 2025.
Ashika highlighted that Operation Sindoor in May 2025 transformed defence drone procurement from a budgetary to an existential priority, with the Indian Army's largest-ever drone order worth ₹200 billion providing multi-year revenue visibility. The brokerage noted that defence accounted for 69% of ideaForge's FY26 revenue and that the company supplies UAVs to the Indian Army, paramilitary and police forces.
The investment thesis centres on operating leverage, with fixed costs not rising as fast as revenue. Ashika projects revenue to grow from ₹2,261 million in FY26 to ₹4,252 million in FY27 and ₹8,084 million in FY28, representing year-on-year growth of 40.3%, 88% and 90% respectively. EBITDA is expected to rise from ₹48 million in FY26 to ₹685 million in FY27 and ₹2,349 million in FY28, pushing EBITDA margin from 2.1% to 16.1% and then 29.1% over the same period.
Valuation is based on a FY28E P/E of 32x, applied to estimated EPS of ₹29.4, yielding the ₹942 target price. Ashika said the valuation is supported by a sub-1.0 PEG ratio, positioning within the 30–65x peer P/E range and a scarcity premium for being India's sole listed pure-play drone maker. The brokerage also highlighted ideaForge's electronic warfare resilience stack, including CRPA anti-jamming, VPS and secure communications, which were developed three to four years before becoming procurement requirements.
The report mentioned that the stock had lost 7.5% in one month and 11.5% in three months but gained over 80% in six months and 38.5% in the last year. At the time of reporting, the last traded price was ₹730.90, which is 27% below the 52-week high of ₹997 reached in June 2026 and well above the 52-week low of ₹367.95 touched in March 2026.
Ashika expects adjusted profit after tax to shift from a loss of ₹170 million in FY26 to a profit of ₹206 million in FY27 and ₹1,459 million in FY28, with EPS moving from a loss of ₹3.9 to ₹4.2 and then ₹29.4 across the same period. The brokerage said positive field feedback could accelerate order activity from Q3FY27.
Technical views from Choice Equity Broking noted that the stock had found support near its 200-day EMA at ₹692.77, with resistance at ₹782.88 (50-day EMA). The Daily RSI at 41.53 indicated weak momentum, suggesting that a decisive breakout above resistance would be needed to confirm a stronger recovery.
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