Transrail Lighting
Antique Stock Broking initiates coverage on Transrail Lighting with buy rating despite 13.5% drop in 2026
Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on Transrail Lighting with a 'buy' rating, citing the company's strong position to benefit from the ongoing multi-year power transmission and distribution investment cycle. The brokerage highlights rising renewable capacity, increasing power demand, grid modernization, and growing need for high-voltage transmission infrastructure as key drivers supporting this outlook.
Despite the stock declining 13.5% in 2026 and hitting a record low last month, Antique Stock Broking sees a reversal potential. The firm emphasizes Transrail Lighting’s strong execution capabilities, established domestic and international presence, and a robust order book of ₹160 billion, which provides over two years of revenue visibility.
The order book includes L1 bids and is well diversified, with international orders accounting for 39% of the ₹85 billion in inflows recorded in FY26, reducing reliance on the domestic market. The company also has a healthy bidding pipeline across India and overseas markets, offering opportunities to replenish the order book beyond current execution visibility.
Antique Stock Broking points to favorable power T&D capex tailwinds, a healthy tender pipeline, doubling of manufacturing capacity, and disciplined execution as factors supporting a healthy growth trajectory. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹851, implying a potential upside of 76.5% from the stock’s Tuesday closing price of ₹482.
Financially, Transrail Lighting has shown strong performance from FY22 to FY26, with a topline CAGR of 31%. EBITDA margin expanded by 310 basis points over the period, leading to EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 41% and 58%, respectively. Working capital days improved to 80 in FY26 from 104 in FY22, and cumulative operating cash flow from FY22 to FY26 reached ₹11.6 billion, with operating cash doubling year-on-year in FY26.
The stock had previously reached a record high of ₹855.80 before entering a prolonged correction, dragging it to a record low of ₹400.65 in September. It closed 2025 with a modest gain of 3.12%, and if current losses persist, it could end 2026 with double-digit losses.
Antique Stock Broking notes that with expanded manufacturing footprint, improved execution productivity, and higher internal manufacturing contribution, operating leverage is expected to support earnings growth despite a competitive EPC environment. The views expressed are those of the brokerage and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making investment decisions.
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